Workshop 6:
Foresight and Knowledge Management Methods (Part 2)
Friday 9 June at 9.15-11.30
Chair: Karlheinz Steinmüller
“Thinking Out of the Box” Weak Signals and Wild Cards for European Regions
Karlheinz Steinmüller (Z_punkt GmbH The Foresight Company Essen / Berlin, Germany)
The future of European regions is not solely shaped by existing trends and mega-trends and the intentional action of players but also by surprising events and hidden tendencies that suddenly materialise. Utilizing wild cards - low probability, high impact events - in regional foresight can help to question tacit assumptions, to explore possible futures, to gain insights into complex interactions and emerging agents of change, to test the robustness of scenarios, and finally to encourage action.
In the paper, a taxonomy of wild cards is proposed and examples are given. Ways to detect weak signals and to interpret them appropriately are discussed, as are the basic principles of sensitivity, selectivity and serendipity and methods to focus on the developments that could be built upon. Experiences from regional foresight but corporate foresight as well show that “thinking out of the box” can not only lead to a better understanding of disruptive change but also support the empowerment of regional actors.
Supporting Strategic Knowledge Generation at the Regional Level: Combining Foresight with other Strategic Policy Intelligence Tools
Sabine Hafner-Zimmermann, Guenter Clar (Steinbeis-Europa-Zentrum, Stuttgart, Germany)
We will focus on the usability and the impact of combining Foresight with other Strategic Policy Intelligence (SPI) tools to enhance regional RTDI policy-making and raise RTD investments, presenting first results of the EU-supported RegStrat project. As was pointed out in the corresponding Regions of Knowledge 2-call, Europe’s regions “share the need for guidance in their RTD policies, […], for benchmarking and application of prospective studies in order to make informed policy decisions.” This highlights the need for support to strategic knowledge generation and capacity building at the regional level. On the other hand, if this knowledge is supplied effectively, regional actors can make a significant contribution to innovation and increased RTDI investments in Europe’s regions, especially with a view to the "Lisbon competitiveness goals" and the "Barcelona 3% benchmark”.
Consequently, the RegStrat project explores regional possibilities and future prospects for the regional adaptation and structured application of foresight and other strategic tools such as technology assessment, evaluation and benchmarking. These are especially needed to effectively use the post-2006 EU Structural Funds in Europe’s regions. The project brings together all relevant regional stakeholders to enhance future thinking, regional networking and trans-regional collaboration and learning, and to enable them to identify the optimum strategic intelligence infrastructure for their regions. During our presentation, we will outline the RegStrat approach which lies at the intersection of strategic policy research, prospective studies and regional development, and the wider implications of this approach for policy theory and regional development practice. Special attention will be drawn to foresight and other SPI tools which are currently available for application in the regions (the “offer”), to the differing needs for SPI tools of regional decision-makers (the “demand”), and to how this gap can be narrowed with the help of the RegStrat project outcomes.
What is a Weak Signal? – Suggestive Definitions for the Concept of Weak Signal from Theoretical and Practical Viewpoints
Elina Hiltunen (Finland Futures Research Centre, Turku School of Economics, Finland)
The common interest for weak signals has risen considerably in Finland during last years. Articles and books have been written about this issue, and some consulting companies have even developed their own methods for detecting and analyzing weak signals. All the researchers and consultants that share the interest in weak signals, agree on their importance in foreseeing the changes of the future. However, there is confusion about the definition of the concept of the weak signal and concepts close to that. Terms like wild card, emerging issue, tacid knowledge, silent-, strategy -or early warning signal are used in some cases as a synonym to a weak signal. In addition to that, there is a wide variety of viewpoints to the content of the term weak signal. Some researchers consider it to include an emerging trend; the others think it only as a sign that is telling about the change to come (Moijanen, 2003).
The aim of this presentation is to examine the wide field of practices in defining the term weak signal. As a result of that, this presentation suggests some commonly accepted features that define the term weak signal and different classification of this term. The approach is to be from theoretical definitions to practical examples, especially from the point of view of regional development.
Health care planning in Finland using databases
Päivi Ovaskainen (Department of Public Health, University of Turku, Finland), Pirkko Kortekangas (Hospital District of Southwest Finland, Turku, Finland), Päivi Rautava, (Turku City Hospital, Turku, Finland)
The available extensive databases on primary health care and hospital services are not used in the broadest possible sense in Finland. Long-term health care planning at the local level has been based on retroactive economic values, not on population-based needs.
The aim of the study was to assess the application of statistical databases for the purposes of health care planning. Community analysis and descriptive futures research method were used. Community analysis is created with profiles collected from indicators available in the databases. Population information within a limited location may be described by interpreting these profiles. The present study introduces the most crucial element of community analysis, namely the health services profile. The health services profile delineates hospital care and primary health care as to how resources are used in case municipalities and how the profile may be applied within other municipalities of the country.
Descriptive futures research method refers to an approach that is aimed at illustrating predictions based on past perspectives of development. In order to be able to create predictions, the present status must be described as informatively and thoroughly as possible. An illustration of graphic time series involving present health care over 9 years was created and future use estimated for 2 years.
The same groups of diseases largely caused the most expenses in primary health care and hospital care. As another finding, time series may help predict health care utilisation providing that no great or rapid changes take place in the population or its health care practices. Health-related databases and registries include a plenty of possible uses that have not been adequately applied at the municipality level.