Workshop 8:
Futures of Living Environments
Friday 9 June at 9.15-11.30
Chair: Jari Kaivo-oja
Slow Housing - Competitive Edge for Innovative Living Environments
Sirkka Heinonen, Lorenzo Daldoss, Minna Halonen (Communities and Infrastructure, VTT, Espoo, Finland)
A new concept for housing foresight is introduced as a hypothesis in analogy to slow food, and as contrast to hectic urban life. The idea of slow housing is innovated on the basis of preliminary results from a project carried out at VTT in 2004-2005 studying experimental and innovative models of housing, working/production and transport. The aim of this Eco-Regions project was to identify best practices in eco-efficient development of regions, linked with socio-culturally sustainable patterns of living.
The theoretical framework was deduced from the urban and regional theory of Patrick Geddes (1854-1932). This Scottish urbanist and biologist developed various interesting concepts, which have proved to be useful for modern urban studies as well. In the present paper we utilise the concept of analytical triad - place, work and folk, corresponding to the geographical, historical and spiritual aspects of the city or the region - to explore innovative housing and living environments. These are examined also in the light of Geddes’s idea of region-city, a polycentric conurbation having a clear urban focus that radiates out to the hinterland.
Slow food movement is an international association, founded in Italy in 1986. It is in opposition with the homogenisation of modern fast food and life, promoting food and wine culture and defending food and agricultural biodiversity worldwide as well as local products and the need for customer information. In Finland the slow food movement is in its early stage, with only a few convivia (local groups promoting slow-food-culture). In this study we compare a few Italian and Finnish cases of locally produced food and slow food to demonstrate a more rational eco-logistics of products, and a more healthy way of food consumption as part of an emerging slow and long-term-orientated lifestyle, respectively.
Dublin City Prospective: the Application of Futures Methods in Urban Planning Processes in Dublin
Elzbieta Krawczyk, John Ratcliffe (The Futures Academy at Dublin Institute of Technology, Ireland)
In recent years, cities and urban regions have been increasingly applying various forms of strategic planning and future-oriented approaches in order to respond to the challenges posed by contemporary change, competition between cities, a sustainability agenda, the transformation of urban governance and others. The exercises employing futures methods usually vary as they are set in specific contexts, are driven by different motivations and objectives and use diverse methodological approaches. Despite the differences, many of these projects are faced by similar problems arising from the innovativeness and fragility of the approaches used. This paper presents three exercises undertaken in Dublin, in which futures approaches were employed at urban region, local authority and local level. The projects are discussed in regard to their origins, methodologies, participation, and outcomes and outputs. The authors attempt to critically review the exercises and building upon the lessons learned, to draw a range of practical recommendations for the application of futures methods in the urban planning process.
How to Provide a Sustainable Future for Urban Structures for Southern Finland
Ossian von Konow, (Oy Arkart Ab, Järvenpää, Finland)
The Modern Garden City, SocEco Located 55km north of London, Letchworth Garden City is still a superb example of functional urban structure. With a relatively densely built residential area with low building stock, it provides the entire population (34,000 inhabitants) an opportunity to live less than 2km from the town centre and railway station. There are many reasons why the city is socially and ecologically viable. The situation would be even better if the feeder traffic were directed to the city from the outside. Consequently, the central routes and parts of the residential areas would be almost car-free. In addition, this would improve the route network for motor traffic in the town centre and residential areas. Such a city could be called SocEco.
An estimate of the regional structure in southern Finland in 2034
The area of southern Finland is about 60,000km2, i.e., one third larger than the land area of Denmark. In 2005, the population was approximately 3.2 million and represented 60% of Finland's population. Not only the climate but also social, ecological, and other factors will attract at least half or 1 million inhabitants from central and northern Finland to southern Finland. In southern Finland, 90% of the people already live along the railways. The building of two complementary railways (200km) would translate the whole area logistically into an 8-shaped railway system. It can be estimated that in 2034, 1.3 million people in the Helsinki metropolitan area will live along the railway while 1.2 million will live in 8 large regional cities and 1.2 in 40 SocEcos or Garden Cities. Presently these Garden Cities are smallish towns along the railway with some 0.6 million inhabitants in total. The SocEcos will ensure safe urban housing near nature and water – the wish of the majority of Finns – whilst providing the opportunity for residents to engage in different activities in their own courtyard and thereby strengthening their self-esteem. This solution would promote creative initiatives for a better life and could represent an excellent example of sustainable development for centuries to come.
Key to the map:
AN ESTIMATE OF THE REGIONAL STRUCTURE IN SOUTHERN FINLAND IN 2034
RAILWAY NETWORKS AND CITIES: Inhabitants
Helsinki metropolitan region + 3 neighbouring cities: 1,300,000
8 regional cities: 1,200,000
40 SocEcos, Garden Cities: 1,200,000
Countryside: 300,000
Total: 4,000,000
(Key words: urban structure, sustainability, Garden City)
Making Sustainable Living a Reality
Stuart Rose (Began Garden Atriums, Poquoson, Virginia, USA)
Aims:
The overall goal of this applied research effort is widespread
acceptance of – and transition to – sustainable housing: 1)
Determine whether or not a totally sustainable house can compete in
an open marketplace with traditional housing design. 2) Identify
adjustments that need to be made – in both the house design and in
how it’s marketed – to gain widespread acceptance. 3) Identify the
most likely Early Adapter profile, to pave the way for widespread
acceptance by the Early and Late Majority. 4) Lay the groundwork for
widespread consumer demand for totally sustainable housing.
Methods:
This is a venture in applied research. Isolating variables,
establishing control groups, and evolving 90 percent statistical
certainty is near impossible. The process used had five steps:
- Identify the dimensions that constitute “sustainability.” From trends literature in the late 90s, this initially appeared to consist of: heating, cooling, electric power, water, land use efficiency, stormwater management, air quality, and material re-use. Specialists were identified for each dimension, where needed.
- As the effort was totally funded by commitment of personal assets, and as the risk was high, the coaching of an experienced and successful developer was secured.
- Two focus groups of potential buyers were conducted. They were shown drawings and a computer graphic animation of the project, and asked for likes, dislikes, suggestions, and buying desirability. (Being one story was an inadvertent plus; more storage was needed.)
- Designs were finalized, using focus group input. The model home was built, with the thought: “If you like this, we’ll build one for you.”
- Initial marketing efforts – coached by the developer and some of his staff – were for masses to experience the house, with the expectation that the needle in the haystack would surface.
Results:
Overall, results have been positive, though not exactly as it was
anticipated.
- With media coverage – TV, articles, ads – open houses had huge turnouts. Over 8,000 people went through the model home. Most, however, were curious, as the house was different than the usual.
- The developer suggested a second house, half the size and cost, so it fit more of the marketplace. People had amazingly little imagination, and needed to see a final product to buy it, or not. When the second house was 90 percent complete, traditional real estate sales vehicles – Multiple Listing Service, and web site – produced real buyers.
- The second house quickly had one contract and two back-up contracts. But neither of the two who did not get that house would wait six months for another to be built for them. “I need it now!”
- None of the people tending contracts were buying for sustainable reasons. All three said they wanted the house because of (1) it’s aesthetics, (2) the low utility bills; and (3) uniqueness, for guests.
Implications:
Overall, this effort is proving successful, to the amazement and
amusement of traditional homebuilders and realtors. Sustainable
houses can be sold – but – keyed to buyers’ interests. Sales occur
when people are looking, so that new homes must be 90 percent
complete, “Ready to go,” before marketing should begin.
“Sustainability” needs to be more than “Survival.” It could actually
be an opportunity to enhance quality of life experience. The housing
industry is conservative and slow to change. For sustainable housing
to be commonplace, mortgages must be based on a buyer’s ability to
pay total monthly bills. Sustainable home’s added equipment means a
higher mortgage, but much lower utility bills. In the past five
years, new “sustainability” dimensions surfaced. We’ve may have
passed Global Peak Oil in 2000. As oil costs escalate, we’ll drive
fewer miles in more efficient cars. Europe is already building huge
amount of wind power. But fertilizers and pesticides are oil-based.
The “next generation” needs to provide virtually all food – and will
essentially consist of small sustainable communities.
Discipline/Theory in question:
From a theoretical perspective, three concepts, or frameworks, come
to mind:
- Dissonance Theory has long been a somewhat unresolved debate between people acting to attain a goal or acting to eliminate pain. At this point, the pain has not yet appeared to be a sufficient motivator.
- Learning Theory often describes nine distinct modes of thinking, from “signal-response” to “associative.” Virtually everyone involved – coaches, technical specialists, or buyers – did not think expansively. Associated implications may not hit them until they actually occur.
- Communication Theory includes how we “internalize” concepts and information, and then act upon the data. So far, concrete realities – what is – dominate what might be. How close to the edge will we go before people see “sustainability” as our ability to actually “sustain”?
Ambience Design and Future of Living Environments: Results from a Delphi study
Jari Kaivo-oja (Finland Futures Research Centre, Turku School of Economics, Turku, Finland)
The aim of this Delphi study was to analyze future developments in the field of Ambience Design service and product applications, as well as solutions. The Ambience Design (multimodal) approach contains within it great potential for many socio-technical innovations. The potential is based on creating novel multimodal environments and new brand images that have a higher sensory potential. The brand building of the future is expected to move from its conventional two-sensory approach to a multi-sensory 5-D approach. In this pioneering foresight study of Ambience Design solutions and applications, this potential was analyzed in detail through an expert panel Delphi study, which evaluated a series of questions and claims concerning issues, which are relevant for the future development of socio-technical innovations in this changing and emerging Ambience Design field. The central starting point for the Delphi study was Martin Lindstrom’s (2005) book “Brand Sense”, which was based on Millward Brown’s global study linking branding and sensory awareness. This Delphi study reflects, in many ways, the current international discussion about brand building and smart environments. The detailed results and insights gained from this Delphi study are presented in the paper. This study includes various interesting results related to desirability, probability and feasibility of Ambience Design solutions in city planning, which should be taken into consideration in the planning of living environments.